Hypothesis
Overcome the tendency to believe what we think is true. Use the scientific method to validate assumptions.
Overview
A hypothesis is a belief or assertion that can be tested — it's either true or not. Most products or features are built on a belief that there's a customer need for them. The value of hypothesis testing is that it challenges the team to test the belief before spending money building something.
There are lots of risks inherent in building: Value risk (do people want it?), Usability risk (can they use it?), Feasibility risk (can you build it?), and Stakeholder risk (will stakeholders support it?).
Hypothesis testing helps with all of these, but it's especially suited to the first two. It's really just stating your hypothesis, determining how you'll test it, what you'll measure, and stating up front the success criteria you'll use to decide if you were right.
A Work Experiment
We ran an experiment recently. We wanted to improve our product managers' skills and thought teaching a class would be great. Instead of building the materials and offering it, we first sent an invitation to gauge interest. We decided to build and teach it only after 10 people responded positively.
There are great books on this — "Testing Business Ideas" and "Validating Product Ideas" — where you can learn the many ways to test a hypothesis: Wizard of Oz, Concierge MVP, Fake Door, and more.